ITC Q4 preview: Net profit likely to fall, final dividend expected; check earnings expectations and key technical levels

Diversified conglomerate ITC will announce its fourth-quarter results on May 22, 2025. The FMCG major is expected to report mixed earnings, with low single-digit revenue growth and a decline in net profit.

Experts believe ITC is likely to post a 1–3% year-on-year (YoY) increase in standalone revenue, reaching ₹16,500–₹16,850 crore. This growth is expected to be driven by higher sales in its FMCG and cigarettes segments.

However, profitability may be under pressure. Net profit is projected to decline 6–8% YoY to ₹4,600–₹4,700 crore, largely due to margin compression from rising raw material costs.

After the results, investors will focus on key performance indicators such as segment-wise volume growth in FMCG, cigarettes, and agribusiness. Management commentary on demand trends, especially in rural markets, will also be closely watched. Additionally, investors are anticipating the dividend announcement.

As of Thursday, May 22, ahead of the Q4 results, ITC shares are trading 1.3% lower at ₹427. Year-to-date, the stock is down 4.1%.

Technical view

The technical structure of the ITC remains weak as it trades below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for five months. Additionally, it is facing resistance from the downward sloping trendline connecting its all-time high and January siwng high.

For the upcoming sessions, short-term traders can monitor the price action around 200-day EMA and 50-day EMA. A close above or below these levels supported by the candlestick pattern will provide further directional clues.

Options outlook

Before planning strategies, let's examine ITC’s historical price behaviour during past earnings announcements.

Options strategy

With the options market predicting a price movement of ±3% till May 29, traders can consider long and short straddle strategies to take advantage of the expected volatility.

Meanwhile, traders seeking a directional approach can explore spreads, which provide a refined alternative to simple option buying.

• For a bullish outlook and a break above 200-day EMA, traders can consider a bull call spread strategy. It involves buying a call option while simultaneously selling a higher strike call with the same expiration, reducing cost while capping potential gains.
• Conversely, for a break below 50-day EMA, one can consider a bear put spread strategy. It involves buying a put option and selling a lower strike put, balancing risk and reward.