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  5. MCX Gold surges to all-time high, weak dollar and trade war jitters fuel rally; check today’s trade setup

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MCX Gold surges to all-time high, weak dollar and trade war jitters fuel rally; check today’s trade setup

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By Upstox News Desk

3 min read | Updated on April 21, 2025, 16:46 IST

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SUMMARY

Gold prices extended the bullish momentum on the MCX, touching a fresh record high of ₹96,875 per 10 grams. This comes after the U.S. dollar fell over 1% on concerns over the ongoing tariff war between the U.S. and China.

After two weeks of rebound, crude prices resumed its downtrend and fell over 2% today.

After two weeks of rebound, crude prices resumed its downtrend and fell over 2% today.

Market recap (as of 3:36 pm)

  • Gold 5 June Futures: ₹96,780 (▲ 1.6%)
  • Silver 5 May Futures: ₹95,950 (▲ 1.5%)
  • Crude Oil 19 May Futures: ₹5,346 (▼ 2.4%)
Gold: The yellow metal traded higher on Monday, with June futures at $3,400 per ounce, up 2.1%. The rise was supported by a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, which fell 1.2% to 97.9. A continued decline in the dollar boosts demand for gold, which is priced in dollars. Meanwhile, silver also moved higher, with futures up 0.6% at $32.60 per troy ounce.
Crude Oil: International crude oil futures fell with Brent futures down 1.5% at $66.92, while WTI crude dropped 1.6% to $62.90. Oil started the week on a weaker note as concerns about U.S. tariffs and their impact on global growth persist. Experts anticipate these economic headwinds to slow fuel demand growth. Adding to the pressure, OPEC+ plans to proceed with an output hike of 4,11,000 barrels per day starting in May 2025, which is expected to increase global supply.

Technical structure

Gold: The technical setup for gold remains bullish on the daily chart. After a gap-up open, MCX gold hit a fresh record high and is currently holding those gains. Immediate support is now seen around the ₹93,900 level. However, the risk-reward for new long positions has turned unfavourable.

Traders eyeing fresh bullish or bearish positions should watch price action near the ₹93,900 support zone. As long as gold holds above this level, the trend may remain bullish. A close below it would be the first sign of a potential pullback.

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Silver: After a positive start, silver prices came under selling pressure and faced resistance from its 50-day exponential moving average. It is consolidating its monring gains and is forming a doji candlestick pattern on the daily chart. For short-term clues, traders can monitor the price action of silver between ₹97,100 and ₹94,100. A break above or below this range will provide further directional clues.
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Crude oil: After two weeks of rebound, crude prices resumed its downtrend and fell over 2%. It failed to reclaim its 21-day EMA on the daily chart and started the Monday’s session on a negative note. The broader structure of the crude remains sideways to bearish within the range of ₹5,700 and ₹4,800. A break of this range will provide further directional clues.
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The open interest data of 15 May expiry saw significant call options build-up at 5,400 and 5,500 strikes. This indicates that the crude prices may face resistance around these levels.

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Disclaimer:

Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop-losses. The information is only for the client's consumption, and such material should not be redistributed. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities, or strategies for trading. The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely to show how to do analysis. Take your own decision before investing.

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About The Author

Upstox
Upstox News Desk is a team of journalists who passionately cover stock markets, economy, commodities, latest business trends, and personal finance.

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